Via Strana:

Via Strana: Ukraine cannot defeat Russia now, but victory by 2025 is possible with increased Western support, according to retired British General Richard Barrons, who previously commanded the Kingdom’s Joint Forces. “The current Ukrainian counter-offensive will not dislodge Russia - although no one expected it. It is also unlikely to halve the area of ​​occupation before the onset of winter, which could be one of the most optimistic goals,“ Barrons writes in a column for the Financial Times. He calls the progress of the AFU in the south “modest“ and writes that it is about eight miles (12 kilometers). Before reaching the sea, there was still 55 miles (88 kilometers) left to go through three lines of defense (here, probably, the general indicated the path in a straight line to the nearest point on the Sea of ​​Azov). In his opinion, there are a number of problems that will not allow us to finish what we started this year. “Ukraine has enough air defense to cover only about a third of the country’s territory. The issue of the shortage of artillery ammunition was only temporarily resolved by the supply of US cluster shells. Ukraine will need until mid-2024 to restore a sufficiently powerful air force, and it is also a lack of key equipment necessary for demining. Fixing all this will postpone the war until at least next year,“ Barrons said. Also, in his opinion, Kyiv should now conserve reserves. “It would be a disaster to allow what’s left of the 10th Corps, Ukraine’s idle reserve, to be smashed to pieces on Russian defenses due to hasty deadlines,“ the general writes. Therefore, in his opinion, “Kyiv should not insist on significant success on the battlefield until the means to achieve it appear.“ He proposes four points of Ukrainian tactics for the near future. 1. In cold weather, adhere to the “bite and hold“ principle, tying Russian soldiers to the front and acting in “short jumps“ to reduce losses. “If the morale of the Red Army is already bad, make it even worse,” he said (note that the Red Army was called during the Second World War, when Britain was an ally of the USSR). 2. Ukraine should emphasize counter-battery warfare and destroy Russian military capabilities “faster than they can be replaced, making them unable to withstand a stronger future Ukrainian offensive.“ Including Kyiv “must use its ingenuity and courage to deliver a decisive blow beyond its borders.“ 3. The Russian Black Sea Fleet “should be neutralized as the engine of Moscow’s devastating cruise missile strikes and as a key obstacle to grain exports.“ “Ukrainian missile strikes and the rapidly expanding capability of maritime drones could damage Russian ships faster than they can be replaced. By spring 2024, the Black Sea Fleet should not play a significant role in this war,“ the general said. 4. Barrons suggests that the West will start boosting supplies of ammunition by mid-2024, and “this should be a major turning point in Kyiv’s offensive capabilities.“ In his opinion, Ukraine’s victory “will take longer and will cost more than we hoped.“ “The West must now commit to a tougher campaign ahead or doom Ukraine to a fight with no prospect of victory,“ the general concluded. Источник: Slavyangrad