AZERBAIJANS OFFENSIVE IN NAGORNO-KARABAKH: TRAP OR BENEFIT FOR RUSSIAN MILITARY

Amid the ongoing military operations of Russia in Ukraine, the situation has simultaneously escalated in many unstable regions where Moscow has its interests. Moldova gave signals about the possible unfreezing of the conflict in Transnistria. In early August, political manoeuvres in Kosovo led to escalation on the borders with Serbia. While the whole world was watching the flight of Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan, betting on the beginning of World War III, hostilities resumed near the Russian borders in the Caucasus. After a series of clashes since the end of July, on August 3, the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan announced a military operation “Retaliation” in Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan demanded the complete disarmament of Artsakh and the withdrawal of the Armenian military from the territory. Azerbaijani units have launched military operations in three directions at once. The Azerbaijani military is set to take the Lachin corridor and cut the road between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. The Azerbaijani side demanded Armenia to organize communications by another route. The declared reason for escalation was the attack of Armenian forces which resulted in the death of Azerbaijani soldier in the region of Lachin. As a result, an Azierbaijani Bayraktar TB2 UAV struck an Armenian post at Sarydag height. Two hours later, another UAV attack and artillery fire hit the positions of the Artsakh Defense Army to the west of the village of Yehtsaoh. Clashes were reported on the contact line. In the northern direction, fighting broke out in the area of the village of Martakert. In the north-western direction, Azerbaijan concentrated forces near the village of Parukh, which it managed to occupy in April this year. As a result of the operation, Azerbaijan has taken control of several heights along the Karabakh ridge, where new positions are being set up and supply routes are being laid. The ministry of defense of Artsakh claimed that the Azerbaijani strikes killed two Armenian soldiers and wounded 14 others. The Karabakh government announced partial mobilization. The Artsakh Defense Army is moving reinforcements to the most dangerous areas. Hundreds of Russian peacekeepers are currently deployed in Nagorno-Karabakh to enforce the ceasefire reached after the war of 2020. So far, the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers has not been declared. However, the active participation of the Russian military in a new conflict is unlikely. Russia has little interest in supporting the Pashinyan’s regime remaining in power in Armenia. At the same time, Moscow is establishing ties with Baku and Istanbul. Azerbaijan’s military operations in Nagorno-Karabakh may end the decades of instability in the Russian border region and will allow withdrawing of the Russian military from the region. After all, the time of military operations by Azerbaijan was well chosen. A large offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine which the Kiev regime has publicly declared is expected to begin in the second half of August.