Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars: Current development and forecast for 2024

두개의 전쟁 글로벌 안보, 경제에 미친 영향, 앞으로의 방향은? (LIM) Q1. This year, the attention of the world has been on two wars: the war in Ukraine sparked by Russia’s invasion almost two years ago and the war between Israel and Hamas in the Middle East. Before discussing each war, how have these two wars affected global geopolitics and the global economy? (LEGRENZI) Q2. Alright, let’s first talk more about the war in the Middle East region. Though the negotiation is stalled right now Israel had reportedly offered to pause the fighting in Gaza. the first proposal since the collapse of a deal last month that led to a seven-day ceasefire and the release of more than one hundred hostages. What might be the reason behind Israel’s offer? And how are their terms for truce differ? (LIM) Q3. Hope another truce could be agreed so that more hostages could return home. The U.S. has been steadfast in its support for Israel since the Hamas attack on October 7th but it did urge Tel Aviv to make a transition from high-intensity operations to lower, more surgical tactics. What is Washington’s stance on the war right now? (LEGRENZI) Q4. Meanwhile, amid the war in Gaza, tensions on Israel’s northern front are mounting as well, with Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah exchanging attacks. Could you walk us through why this conflict is taking place and do you see an all-out conflict with Hezbollah as being inevitable? (LIM) Q5. Not just on the northern part of Israel Concerns are mounting on the Red Sea as well as attacks by Iran-backed Houthis are on the rise. Could you give us some background on why the Houthi group are demanding that Israel ends its war in Gaza? (LEGRENZI) Q6. To tackle this, the U.S. announced the creation of an enhanced naval protection force named “Operation Prosperity Guardian.“ If the conflict intensifies, how would that affect global trade and the shipping industry? (LIM) Q7. Turning our eyes to the war in Ukraine and discussions over the country joining the EU. Hungary’s Prime Minister left a meeting in a pre-agreed manner, after which membership talks between the EU and Ukraine began. What significance does this green light have for Ukraine? (LEGRENZI) Q8. Though the agreement was reached on starting Ukraine’s EU membership talks, Hungary eventually blocked 55 billion U.S. dollars worth of EU funding for Ukraine. EU leaders said negotiations would resume next year, but what impact would this have on the war in Ukraine? (LIM) Q9. Ukraine is also desperately seeking the approval of a 61 billion U.S. dollar defense aid package but that decision is also being delayed because of disagreements between Democrat and Republican lawmakers. With the presidential election coming up next year, some say it could be difficult for the U.S. to continue military support for Ukraine. What is your view on this? (LEGRENZI) Q10. With support from Western allies either delayed or significantly reduced, how might that affect the war in Ukraine? Would peace negotiations eventually begin? (BOTH) Q11. Though there are so many variables, what do you expect for both wars in 2024? What are the scenarios that could play out? Unfortunately, that’s all the time we have for today’s edition. Thank you Professor Lim and Professor Legrenzi for your time and insights. We appreciate it. #Ukraine_war #Israel_Hamas_war #global_economy #Russia #economy #Middle_East #Europe #economic_security #우크라이나전쟁 #이스라엘_하마스_전쟁 #세계경제 #Arirang_News #아리랑뉴스 📣 Facebook : 📣 Twitter : 📣 Homepage : 2023-12-22, 18:30 (KST)