What is a probability for brown eyed parents to have three children with different eye color
A probability provides a quantatative description of the likely occurrence of a particular event. Probability is conventionally expressed on a scale from 0 to 1; a rare event has a probability close to 0, a very common event has a probability close to 1.
The probability of an event has been defined as its long-run relative frequency. It has also been thought of as a personal degree of belief that a particular event will occur (subjective probability).
In some experiments, all outcomes are equally likely. For example if you were to choose one winner in a raffle from a hat, all raffle ticket holders are equally likely to win, that is, they have the same probability of their ticket being chosen. This is the equally-likely outcomes model and is defined to be:
P(E) = number of outcomes corresponding to event E
total number of outcomes
Examples
The probability of drawing a spade from a pack of 52 well-shuffled playing cards is 13/52 = 1/4 = since
event E = ’a spade is drawn’;
the number of outcomes corresponding to E = 13 (spades);
the total number of outcomes = 52 (cards).
When tossing a coin, we assume that the results ’heads’ or ’tails’ each have equal probabilities of 0.5.
ndependent Events
Two events are independent if the occurrence of one of the events gives us no information about whether or not the other event will occur; that is, the events have no influence on each other.
In probability theory we say that two events, A and B, are independent if the probability that they both occur is equal to the product of the probabilities of the two individual events, i.e.
P(A n B) = P(A).P(B)
The idea of independence can be extended to more than two events. For example, A, B and C are independent if:
A and B are independent; A and C are independent and B and C are independent (pairwise independence);
P(A n B n C) = P(A).P(B).P(C)
If two events are independent then they cannot be mutually exclusive (disjoint) and vice versa.
Example
Suppose that a man and a woman each have a pack of 52 playing cards. Each draws a card from his/her pack. Find the probability that they each draw the ace of clubs.
We define the events:
A = probability that man draws ace of clubs = 1/52
B = probability that woman draws ace of clubs = 1/52
Clearly events A and B are independent so:
P(A n B) = P(A).P(B) = 1/52 . 1/52 =
That is, there is a very small chance that the man and the woman will both draw the ace of clubs.
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